2025: From Crisis Management to Systemic Change?

2025: From Crisis Management to Systemic Change?

As we near the end of 2025, let’s take a moment to reflect on the past 12 months. The challenges and the rewards.

By Lily Blakeledge

24th December 2025

As we reach the final days of December, I find myself reflecting on the year not just from my desk at AMHIE, but from the arena.

For those of you who don’t know me well yet, I am a horse-riding instructor in my spare time (and previously full time). I spent a lot of my time working at disabled riding schools, and if there is one thing that environment teaches you, it’s the power of the “unspoken.” In the arena, you quickly learn that you cannot force a connection or a result; you must create the right conditions for it to happen. I see a lot of parallels between that work and what we do in education.

Whether I’m working with a neurodivergent rider or a student in a classroom, the core need is the same: they need to feel safe, understood, and regulated before any “learning” can take place.

My husband works in care, so our evenings are often spent comparing notes on two systems that feel increasingly intertwined. We see the same patterns of stretched resources and incredible human resilience. At 40, without children of my own, I’ve had the space to reflect on how our education system has evolved since I was in the classroom. This year has felt different. Between the quiet focus of the stables and the high-energy chaos of the music festivals I love to attend, I’ve noticed a shift in the “frequency” of our sector—a move away from just talking about the crisis and toward actually building the infrastructure to manage it.

The Referrals Deadlock: Being Honest About the “Wall”

While we’ve seen big announcements this year, we must talk about the elephant in the room: the referral process.

The most common feedback we hear at AMHIE isn’t that leads don’t know how to support their students—it’s that they are hitting a brick wall when they try to refer those who need more than a school can provide. We’ve reached a point where “Ordinarily Available Provision” (OAP) feels less like a framework for inclusion and more like a gatekeeping mechanism.

  • The “OAP” Paradox: The new guidance suggests that most needs should be met in a mainstream classroom through “high-quality teaching.” While theoretically sound, the reality on the ground is that schools are being told to “do more” with “less access” to specialists.
  • The Referral Desert: We’ve seen a 140% increase in EHCPs over the last decade, yet the threshold for CAMHS or specialist intervention has moved so high it’s almost invisible.
  • The White Paper Scepticism: It’s okay to say it: the sector is sceptical. The upcoming Schools White Paper (slated for early 2026) promises a “recalibration,” but for a teacher who has spent 18 months waiting for an Educational Psychologist assessment, “recalibration” sounds like another word for “waiting.”

2025: A Year of Hard-Won Infrastructure

Despite the frustration, there are structural shifts we shouldn’t ignore. 2025 wasn’t just a year of waiting; it was a year of building.

  • MHST Tipping Point: Mental Health Support Teams (MHSTs) now cover 52% of schools. While that leaves half of you without that direct link, the momentum is finally moving toward a universal standard.
  • Attendance as Wellbeing: We’ve finally stopped viewing absence through a purely punitive lens. The launch of the RISE Attendance Hubs this autumn acknowledged that for many, a “refusal” to attend is actually a “distress” signal.
  • The Young Futures Hubs: The first 8 of 50 planned open-access hubs launched this year, providing a glimmer of hope for that “hidden middle”—students who aren’t in crisis enough for A&E, but are too complex for a standard school ELSA.

The “Small Wins” Strategy: Finding Grounding in the Gaps

When the big systemic shifts feel like they are happening in slow motion, it’s the “small wins” that keep us in the saddle. In 2025, we’ve seen a shift toward grass-roots advocacy that doesn’t wait for a White Paper.

  • Peer Support as a Lifeline: We’ve seen a surge in Senior Mental Health Lead (SMHL) networks. It’s no longer just one person on an island; leads are increasingly pooling resources, sharing “what works” for local referral bypasses, and validating each other’s experiences.
  • The Rise of Sensory-First Classrooms: Even without massive capital funding, schools are beginning to adopt “low-arousal” environments as standard. Small changes—dimmer lighting, “un-cluttered” walls, and designated regulation stations—are becoming part of the “Ordinarily Available” toolkit. These aren’t just for neurodivergent students; they are helping the baseline anxiety of the entire cohort.
  • A Shift in Language: We are finally moving away from the “resilience” narrative (which often feels like asking a tired horse to jump a higher fence) and toward “regulation.” We’re starting to understand that we can’t teach a child who is in a state of “fight or flight.”

A Final Thought: Protecting the Gatekeepers

If my time at the stables has taught me anything, it’s that a horse can sense a person’s tension from fifty yards away. The same is true in our schools. Our students are mirrors; they reflect the stress of the adults around them.

My husband’s work in care reminds me daily that “compassion fatigue” is a real, clinical risk. For many of you, 2025 has been a year of carrying secondary trauma home. At 40, I look back at my time in the classroom and realise how much I pushed through because I felt I had to. But looking ahead to 2026, my hope for you is that you find permission to be “human” first and “educator” second.

The White Paper might not solve the referral backlog, and the funding might still feel like a drop in the ocean, but the work you do in those small, “unspoken” moments of connection is where the real change happens. At AMHIE, we aren’t just here to track the data; we’re here to make sure that the people behind the statistics are supported, seen, and—most importantly—given the space to breathe.

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The January Transition: A Guide to Cultural & Environmental Regulation

Prepared by the Association of Mental Health in Education

Introduction: The “Soft Start” Philosophy

In many ways, returning to school in January is harder than September. The light is low, energy reserves are depleted, and the pressure of the “long term” looms. This guide is intended to help you look at systems that facilitate a shift from compliance to connection.

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